OT : Groundhogs Day

There seems to be SOME truth to the groundhog story, but only SOME.

In a given location, if the sky is clear at this time of year, the
chances are higher that this is a result of a local or national high
pressure system. It is these high pressure systems that in winter bring
down the cold polar air.

So, there is a tendency to still be in the cold, mostly dry part of
Winter (usually lower water content in the atmosphere).

If the sky is cloudy, then at least locally, we are more likely to be
starting the Spring wet season, where low pressure systems carry clouds
and moisture/rain.

Of course, the caveats are Local vs National weather conditions and
Local vs National groundhog observations.

Which groundhog, and his/her geographical setting, will you use, or will
you use a better statistical sampling?

Setting aside the fact that in Pennsylvania the groundhog didn't see his
shadow, but in Iowa, the groundhog did see her shadow (sexual equality
ought to apply even to weather predictors :-) ----- then the clouds and
rain in eary February COULD mean that Spring is brewing. Clear and cold
COULD mean that we're still in "real" Winter.

In Iowa, the 2 week forecast is much colder than normal so she could be
right too.

How to pick the groundhog and his/her geographical location or locations
which best samples the national weather patterns is unclear at this time.

Real winter means you could have extra carb cravings, so you better
watch out.



Jim

"Jbuch" wrote

There seems to be SOME truth to the groundhog story, but only SOME.

I thought it rather curious that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change released its report on Groundhog's Day. I wonder if it was a
coincidence or not...

--
Bob
http://www.kanyak.com

Opinicus wrote:
"Jbuch" wrote


There seems to be SOME truth to the groundhog story, but only SOME.


I thought it rather curious that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change released its report on Groundhog's Day. I wonder if it was a
coincidence or not...


Well, the report almost certainly got a chilly reception in the George W
Bush Whitehouse.

So, we know the political forecast is against warming. Still.

Did you know that Groundhog's Day is almost exactly halfway between the
Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox?

And the IPCC had scheduled the data of release earlier as a firm
deadline sometime earlier.

It makes SOME sense to believe that the date has climatological
significance.

Jim

On Sat, 03 Feb 2007 08:03:44 -0600, Jbuch wrote:

There seems to be SOME truth to the groundhog story, but only SOME.

The groundhog stuff is pure bull****. Where I live (Ontario), "six
more weeks of winter" would be a frigging blessing. It would mean
spring would be here in the middle of March. There is no way that
happens. We usually have to wait 'til the middle of April.

Jo Anne